What could escalation in space lead to?

The United States will respond adequately to any attack by Russia on U.S. infrastructure, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby warned the day before.

This was Kirby’s comment on the statement made earlier at the UN General Assembly committee meeting by Konstantin Vorontsov, deputy head of the Department of Nonproliferation and Arms Control of the Russian Foreign Ministry, that Western commercial satellites used in space for “military purposes” could become legitimate targets for attack.

The Russian diplomat did not specify which satellites he was referring to. But Moscow has long been annoyed, in particular, by the operation of the Starlink satellite communications system of SpaceX, which is owned by Ilon Musk. Starlink provided substantial assistance to the Ukrainian military fighting the Russian army. Musk himself claimed that his system was repeatedly subjected to hacker attacks from Russia.

According to John Kirby, the only real danger now is Russia’s war in Ukraine and the methods by which it is conducted.

Note that Konstantin Vorontsov has made similar threats before.

“This is already a ‘casus belli’.”

Most likely, Vorontsov’s speech at the UN is an unsupported political statement, says military and political expert Yury Fedorov. At the same time, according to his assessment, purely technically Russia, like, say, China and the United States, has the ability to destroy satellites.

“But this is a very difficult task with poorly predictable consequences,” he added in an interview with the Russian service of the Voice of America. – You would have to launch a missile that would actually enter a satellite’s trajectory and destroy it there, let’s say by kinetic collision. However, it is necessary to imagine how many vehicles, including reconnaissance vehicles, of various countries are orbiting and how many missiles will be needed to destroy them.

Besides, if Russia starts destroying American satellites, there will be an immediate response, stressed Yury Fedorov. In his opinion, this is just an ill-conceived threat from a Russian diplomat.

“I don’t know which satellites Vorontsov had in mind,” he continued. -The most dangerous thing for Russia is actually not Starlink satellites, but American reconnaissance satellites. But in any case they are the property of the US. If they are destroyed, it’s already “casus belli” a formal reason for war, especially in the current situation. And why does Moscow need this, given the balance of power? In general I often don’t really understand the logic of what Russian diplomats are saying. And this statement made by a representative of the Foreign Ministry is, in my opinion, just idiotic.

The politico-military expert reminded about the case when the Russian anti-satellite system was tested.

“Then Russia’s kamikaze satellite destroyed another Russian satellite. The result was a cloud of debris, and there was a big scandal, because the debris threatened a number of space programs and facilities. Has this sad experience not convinced Moscow of anything? – Yuri Fedorov summarized.

As the experts say, the debris from the satellite remains in orbit for decades, moving at a speed of over 27 thousand kilometers per hour. This poses a real threat, for example, to the International Space Station (ISS) and other systems. The ISS has already had to maneuver to avoid the danger.

“To imagine that Russia will be allowed to shoot down satellites with impunity would be highly naive.”

Moscow will not dare to shoot down commercial satellites, for its part, blogger and lawyer Mark Feigin is sure. Because, in his opinion, such actions will not go unpunished.

“The interlocutor of the Voice of America says, “They will respond by shooting down Russian satellites, and Moscow may lose all its space facilities. – The Americans have the means to destroy them. So it would be extremely naive to think that Russia will be allowed to shoot down satellites with impunity. By the way, such actions in space are forbidden by an international agreement. If you want to violate it, you are welcome. But this will inevitably lead to harsh retaliation.

So this is obviously a game for another raise of the stakes, thinks Mark Feigin.

“Otherwise it would certainly be an act of war,” he argues. – The satellites may be commercial, but encroaching on them is tantamount to destroying a civilian aircraft. Yes, formally the satellites belong to private companies, but they are still under the protection of their states. So it seems to me that so far this is blackmail and threats that can only be implemented purely theoretically in view of the inevitable consequences. The most innocent of them is that all Russian satellites will be shot down.

In addition, the destruction of any device in orbit will entail a chain of events in space itself, because the debris can affect satellites of different countries, including, for example, the Chinese, the blogger says. And it is easy to guess how Beijing will react to this, he concluded.