Experts have estimated the timeline and cost of rebuilding the collapsed bridge in Baltimore

Experts say rebuilding Baltimore’s crumbling Francis Scott Key Bridge could take anywhere from 18 months to several years and cost $400 million – or even double that amount.

It depends on factors that are still largely unknown – from the design of the new bridge to the speed of getting the necessary permits and contracts.

Johns Hopkins University civil engineering professor Ben Schafer estimates the project could take five to seven years to complete.

“Right now, it takes about 16 months to replace air conditioning systems in a home renovation,” Schafer said. – And you’re telling me they’re going to build an entire bridge in two years. I’d like to believe that, but from experience I don’t think that’s the case.”

Other experts are more optimistic about the potential timeline. According to Schafer’s colleague at George Washington University, Prof. Sameh Badi, the project could take one and a half to two years.

The Key Bridge collapsed Tuesday after a cargo ship crashed into one of its piers. Six people working on the bridge at the time were killed. The collapse led to the closure of the city’s busy harbor.

The accident is somewhat similar to the collapse of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge in Florida, into which a cargo ship crashed in 1980. The new bridge opened in 1987 after five years of construction that took 19 months longer than planned. The original budget overrun was $20 million.

However, experts advise looking at relatively recent examples of bridge collapses.

Jim Tymon, executive director of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, pointed to the case of the collapse of a bridge over the Mississippi River on Interstate 35W in Minnesota. The new span was built in less than 14 months.

“They did a remarkable job of getting all the necessary permits to rebuild as quickly as possible,” he said.

Tymon expects government agencies to work together to get the permits.

“That doesn’t mean they won’t check all the necessary boxes. They will,” Tymon said. – It will just be done more efficiently because everyone will know it needs to be done as quickly as possible.”

One looming issue is funding sources. President Joe Biden has repeatedly said the federal government will pay for the new bridge, but that remains to be seen.

“Hopefully, Congress can come together and provide those resources as soon as possible so it doesn’t become a source of delay,” Tymon said.

Professor Bady estimates the construction cost at $500 million to $1 billion. He said the main variable is the type of construction: a suspension bridge will cost more and a cable-stayed bridge will be less expensive.

Civil engineering professor Hota Gangarao of West Virginia University believes the project could cost as little as $400 million if the foundations of the old bridge piers are used. However, planners may want to locate the new piers away from shipping channels to avoid new collisions.

“That means more steel will be needed, it will be a more complex structure with more checks and balances,” Gangarao said. – All of that adds to the cost.”

Read also: Dealing with the aftermath of the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse is going to take a lot of time